Trip Handicapping Blog

Good morning Friends and welcome to the WGW Trip Handicapping Blog for Friday, May 18th, 2007. I haven’t posted to this blog in quite awhile so it is indeed good to be back with you.

The horse I like today is entered in Race 12 at Pimlico, The Grade II Black Eyed Susan for 3 year-old fillies to be run at one mile and one-eighth over the main track. The filly I really like in here is the # 1 Winning Point. In her last start…in the Grade II Comely Stakes at Aqueduct on April 14th, Winning Point ran a very game 2nd, beaten a diminishing length and a half to the very talented blue-blooded Phipps filly Boca Grande. What makes Winning Point’s runner-up finish even more impressive is what happened to her leaving the gate that afternoon. Winning Point lept in the air and stumbled and was taken back to 7th in the field of 8 fillies. I like the way she was able to regain her composure under Luis Garcia and eventually got her late run in gear to make a strong run at Boca Grande. Since that race she’s had two leg-stretching works and comes into this race in top form.

What I like very much is that Winning Point’s pedigree absolutely SCREAMS for today’s distance of one mile and one-eighth. Being the daughter of Point Given and out of a Blushing Groom mare, this gal will be motoring late while many of her counterparts will hit the proverbial brick wall. I also never mind drawing the 1 post going a route of ground.

I will bet WP on Winning Point at odds of 7/2 or better and will make the trifecta as follows:

1 / 3-5-8 / ALL and 3-5-8 / 1/ ALL

Best of luck with your plays!

Bernmeister

Good Morning all!

I have three horses that deserve special mention today at Calder in Stakes Races. One of them is from my trip list and we could get a little bit of a price.

In the 12th race today #10 Classic Campaign comes into this race 3rd race into his current form cycle and gets Garret Gomez for Mott. His race on Dec2, 2006 at Calder was a race in which he stumbled at the start and gave him to much to do. He still closed willingly and is in much better form( there are no Ashkal Ways in this field). I know Hotstuff beat him at Tampa but he wider that day and we get Centeno to Gomez ( has to be worth a couple of lengths at a minimum.) Lets play him to WPS and hope that Gomez can get a good second tier trip today behind what looks to be alot of speed.

In the 10th race at Calder today Gomez also gets on #6 Meribel for Clement. She is the class of the race, the fatsest horse in the race, Gomez has  three wins on this filly so he knows her well. The workout pattern is a favorite of mine ( three stamina type works then the strong blowout on 4/5 another stamina type work and then the awesome breeze on 4/21 telling us she is sharp and ready to fire big off the layoff then it will be up to NY for a diet of graded stakes. Play to WPS and use in multi race wagers.

The 11th Race #8 Imawildandcrazyguy gets major class relief today. Manny Cruz gets on board and if he runs back to the last time he was on the Calder surface 12/10/06 he will not get beat today. Take a look on the track to make sure he looks good because that slow work on 4/21 is a little scary but he seems to be a bit of a lazy worker in the a.m.

Well good luck today and enjoy the picks!

Cash

Good morning fellow horseplayers and welcome to the WGW TRip Handicapping Blog for Thursday, March 22nd. Today’s trip horse exemplifies why I put so much time, energy and effort into taking good trip notes. The horse I am about to discuss got into 7-10 lengths worth of trouble in his previous start, yet there is not a syllable of it mentioned in the Daily Racing Form. This is a dream situation for the avid trip handicapper…I KNOW what happened to compromise the horse last time out but the betting public does NOT. Advantage….Bernmeister! Okay…here are the details.

Our featured horse appears in Race 2 at Turfway Park, a $7500 maiden claiming event. He is the #4 Trim Out. In his last start on February 18th, also at Turfway and in this same condition, Trim Out had the # 1 post position. I used him in some .10 superfectas that day, as his odds of 44/1 were an overlay in my humble opinion. The horse breaks sharply and is running 3rd into the first turn. He’s a few lengths behind some cheap speed. I am waiting for Daniel Coa to get through on the rail and explode to the lead when the drama begins. Coa was scared to death to go through and began to sharply check the horse. He is checking and steadying repeatedly for at least a quarter of a mile. Finally Coa has no choice but to take up and swing out. By this time the horse has lost his action and it’s too late to factor. Trim Out runs 5th, beaten a little more than 7 lengths. Believe me when I tell you that Trim Out was the best horse in the race that day. My trip notes said, ” Worst ride ever by D. Coa…checked sharply and taken up”.

The fact that Coa retains the mount tells me that he must have photographs of trainer Vince White with a midget in a Turkish bathhouse. Okay…maybe that’s a bit extreme but I am very surprised that Coa gets the return call.

Anyway…Trim Out has morning-line odds of 10/1 and could go off as high as 15/1. There are no world beaters in here so I will be betting WP.

I will also make a trifecta box 2-4-6-7-9, a $60 play for a $1 box. It should return boxcars. I will also press the bet using the # 4 keyed in the WPS slots on the ticket.

This one could be very profitable. Good luck with your plays.

Bernmeister

Good morning fellow horseplayers and welcome to the WGW Trip Handicapping Blog for Tuesday, March 20th 2007. Today’s trip horse to watch runs in Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs, a one mile allowance race for non-winners of two, to be run on the turf.

The horse we are interested in is the # 10, So Smooth. This guy’s last journey around the Tampa Bay turf course was anything but smooth. He raced on March 2nd and finished fourth, beaten a diminishing two lengths. The odds-on favorite had the one post that day and got up to win by a nose. So Smooth had a very rough trip, having been shuffled back early, and then checked sharply turning for home. My rough estimate is that he lost anywhere from 5-7 lengths of real estate due to the repeated traffic problems he encountered. He was definitely the best horse in the race that day.

Today trainer Anthony Granitz gives the call to Jose Lezcano. The morning-line odds on So Smooth are 7/2. I would definitely tab him as the one to beat, provided that Lezcano can negotiate some form of ground-saving manuever from the 10 post.

I will play the trifecta: 10 / 3-9 / ALL and 3-9 / 10 / ALL

WP on # 10 at odds of 3/1 or better.

Best of luck with your plays,

Bernmeister

Good morning fellow horseplayers and welcome to the WGW Trip Handicapping Blog for Thursday, February 15th, 2007. Today’s featured runner goes in race 9 at Fairgrounds, a 1 1/16 mile allowance event for non-winners of two, to be run on the turf. The horse I like is the #1, Whisper to Me. This extremely well-bred horse has one win from two career starts and is a nose away from being undefeated. In his last race here at FG on December 10th, he broke from the 11 post position and was subsequently wide on BOTH turns. Despite being asked to cover the maximum amount of real estate as compared to many of his rivals, he unleashed a furious late charge. He was 9th at the top of the stretch, nearly 7 lengths behind the leader, yet he managed to run second, beaten only a nostril for top honors. Very capable turf conditioner Malcolm Pierce gives James Graham a leg up.

I will play the race as follows:

Trifecta

1 / 3-5 / ALL

3-5 / 1 / ALL

Superfecta:

1-3/1-3-5/1-3-5/ ALL

1-3 / 1-3-5 / ALL / 1-3-5

Best of luck with your plays,

Bernmeister

Good Morning everyone!

Today I will give my two future plays and we have a horse coming off of our watch list at Gulfstream.

We will give a big look today at a Nick Zito horse in the 4th race at Gulfstream going 1 mile. 1A Optimistic Steve stumbled at the start losing all chance,was wide and made a big middle move going a two turn mile. I like that Zito and Bejarano are going good at Gulfstream and this one is working excellent. This horse raced very green and during the race I made notes that he will be very strong next out and I love the fact that this is a one turn mile race. Lets play to WPS 

The two horses that I will play in the Futures are Day Pass and Exhale. I will bet Day Pass at 30-1 or higher and Exhale at 25-1 or higher. I love the two races during the fall for Day Pass he has an excellent turn of foot for excellent connections and believe he will relish the 1-1/4 distance the 1st week in May. His stalking gear is exactly what you want in the big race in May. He is being overlooked because of his lack of triple digit beyers and that just tells me that the connections didn’t go to the tank early in his career and want him to peak in Kentucky.

Exhale got beat in his debut by a very good horse and he had trouble. He came back like a monster in his second race and is being carefully pointed towards a spring campaign for the Derby! Saddler likes this horse alot and believes two turns and a distance will be best for a horse who is already 1,200 lbs and needs a few strides to get going. I saw his race at Santa Anita and I bet out on him and he looked great! Sometimes flashy winning maidens are a stretch but thats why we need to get value on him.

Good luck today and we have another trip horse tomorrow to watch for!

Cash

Good morning fellow handicappers and welcome to the WGW Trip Blog for Thursday, February 8th, 2007. Today’s featured horse runs at Oaklawn Park in race # 2, a 1 mile claiming event for 4 year olds and up. The horse I am watching is the # 3, Chases Comet. In his last start on 1-20-07, also at Oaklawn, Chases Comet appeared to be making a winning move up the rail when he was forced to take up sharply. Had he gotten through on that particular day, he would have had his picture taken. He comes back today at odds of 5/1 and gets Terry Thompson in the irons. He should be a major contender in this field.

Best of luck with your plays,

Bernmeister

Good morning fellow handicappers and welcome to the WGW Trip Handicapping Blog for Wednesday, February 7th, 2007. Today’s featured horse also appears in today’s Maiden Spotlight Blog. Her name is My Perfect Patti and she runs in race 4 at Santa Anita. I encourage you to visit the Maiden Spotlight Blog for complete details on this gal. She should graduate today.

Best of luck with your plays,

Bernmeister

Good morning fellow horseplayers and welcome to the WGW Trip Handicapping Blog for Thursday, February 1st, 2007. Today’s featured trip horse runs in race 4 at Delta Downs. This race is a 1 mile claiming event for fillies & mares. The filly we like in here is the #8, Gold Peel. In her previous start on January 17th, also at Delta Downs, jockey Monica Stanley was horrible on this filly. First she allows the filly to break sluggishly from the gate, takes her way far back off the pace ( by my estimate she spotted the field anywhere from 10-15 lengths) and then proceeds to ride her like she was on board Ruffian. She swung 5 wide turning for home and amazingly managed to get up for the show money. Trainer Jim Gaston has obviously seen enough and makes a monumental jockey upgrade to Jeffrey Burningham. Gold Peel has a tremendous late turn of foot, so if we can get the early pace scenario to set things up, this gal will be motoring late. Her morning-line odds are 5/1 but I expect her to be bet down to the 3/1 range. I will bet WP and will use her in multi-race wagers as a single.

As an added note, I actually called a few friends in the business and recommended Gold Peel as an excellent claim for a mere $5,000 pricetag.

Best of luck with your plays,

Bernmeister