The Bounce

By: The Player

There continues to be heated debate over whether there is really such a phenomenon as "the bounce."

Basically, a "bounce" refers to a sub par performance following a better than average (or expected) performance. In other words, imagine a first time starter with average works coming out and running 1:10 flat for six furlongs. Four weeks later the horse appears for his second start and runs a very flat 1:13.

Bounce theorists insist that they could predict this sub par performance due to the "bounce" which really is only defined by an observed consequence. The opposing camp says there is no such thing as being able to accurately predict a bounce race.

I think that, as an exercise scientist and biochemist, I can help to shed a lot of light on this debate.

First, you need to understand the term Super Compensation. Although few race trackers have ever heard this term, fortunately, there is no debating it's existence. Super Compensation is a physiological fact. It is defined simply as, Improvement. In horse racing, specifically, it refers to a horse recovering from a race (or very intense breeze) and rebounding with even greater ability and performance.

It would stand to reason that since there is a construct called Super Compensation, then there would also be one that could reasonably called a Bounce. In fact, I am absolutely sure that there is a Bounce. And I will go so far to say that I agree that Bounces are predictable. In fact, I believe that I will be able to predict them even better than the best of the Bounce theorists, who, in actuality, often find themselves wrong.

In order to understand why I can predict a bounce better, we need to talk more about it's opposite, Super Compensation. Super Compensation occurs almost automatically, a fact of nature, if you will.

Unless a horse in injured, it is an undeniable fact that given an adequate level of race fitness, he or she will recover from a race and reach a point of Super Compensation in 3-5 days. Further, Super Compensation will remain for up to 48 hours. Different systems in the race horse reach Super Compensation at different times, but 3-5 days is a safe window.

For those of you interested in the precise physiology, here are some performance related, specific windows that have been measured in the horse:

Body Weight: If a horse was fit to run, half the weight lost during the race will be regained by the following morning. The remaining half will be regained quickly, typically in 24-36 hours. If the horse was not fit, the weight lost will not be regained and he will continue to lose weight a few pounds a day for a few days before he turns around and begins to slowly regain the weight.

Muscle Fuel and Muscle Enzymes: These will be fully replenished within two days and will actually improve to higher levels in 3-5 days.

Tissue Repair: This requires 3-5 days to reach Super Compensation. A little less for distance races, a little more for sprints and the most for 7 furlong races.



Neurotransmitting Chemicals: These reach Super Compensation levels in 3-5 days as well.

There you have it. Some general principles and some more specific ones for all of you that love physiological trivia.

Basically, the critical thing to remember is that a fit horse almost automatically reaches an improved readiness to perform in 3-5 days and that state will last up to 48 hours. If no solid exercise effort is required in THAT short period, the horse will actually go backwards, or if you will, de-condition to predispose a Bounce.



What this means is that if you show me an intense performance followed by two-three weeks rest and slow to moderate galloping, and no works, then a race, well, I will show you a regression in performance, that is, a Bounce. On the other hand, if you have a very fast race that is followed by a strong breeze 6-7 days later, another breeze 5-7 days following that and a third breeze 5-7 following that and a race four days after the last breeze, well, that horse is in a state of Super Compensation and will move forward off the initial race and not bounce. I donŐt care how fast his first race was.

All this depends on a relatively fit horse to begin with. Things change when a trainer uses a race and rest to get an unfit and leg suspect horse more ready to improve.

Judgment is always required to evaluate fitness states and efficacy in works and as well as predicting whether a horse will improve due to Super Compensation or regress due to a Bounce.