Winning Gone Wild

Today, Friday, is a big day of baby racing across the major tracks.

Belmont Race 2: I am going to go with #1 One Little Secret here for Wesley Ward and the Ramseys. Let’s face facts. As good as Asmussen has been with babies this year; Ward has been better. Prolific. This one can run and I see now reason why the rail will cost him the jump. A total toss up with the Form for second. Pick the ones warming up the best.

Monmouth Race 3: This will be an interesting race but I give the nod to #6 Bridal Song with Pletcher composing. This daughter of Vicar appears fast and well spotted against slightly inferior Jersey track runners. Second should be a head bob affair between #3 Gala Dancer and #4 Judy’s Gonawin. I give the nose to the inside horse even though the work tab appears short. I highly doubt Servis is running her for experience.

Churchill Race 1: Another runaway from the rail for Werner with #1 Live Action. Not a bounce candidate but there are obviously issues cropping up. Take the short price win. Second to #6Lambada and Asmussen. A cold exacta.

Calder Race 1: I despise these 2 furlong races. Not sure why this is even on the card in June. I am going with #3 Marnesia Sunset. Manny Cruz is the pilot. Rossi is unbeaten here now. The dam is 4 for 4. Why not at 2F. #4 Incendiary has run once at this distance and that might be an edge. I don’t’ know….what kind of racing is a quarter mile?

Calder Race 6: Finally we get a little bit of a price with #3 Put It In Play for O’Connell. This is a West Acre colt and she always has them popping this time of year. Nice workouts; take the price and run. Second, to #7 To Monarch. She ran a decent race and worked once back. B.L.’s Appeal is a leader down in Florida.

Good Morning. I am going to try to get back to posting the baby blog.

Today we have two races at Calder to consider.

Calder Race 1:

Interesting race in that the rail horse, Poovey, is a Graeme Hall filly and they run early especially in Florida. The problem is that Larry Bates doesn’t normally have them cranked out of the gate first time and these works are unremarkable. I will pass and watch her.

I have two previous starters to focus on instead. First is a second time starter from the always dangerous B.L.’s Appeal, Short Puffs. A poor start cost her all chance last out but she rallied a bit to show she has some talent. The seasoning might have helped and we’ll look for her to improve this go round.

I also can’t throw out the #5 Three Hail Mary’s. She was bet in the debut and tired after flashing speed. This one is eligible for a big improvement with blinkers added. Watch the warm-up and see. Either of my top two choices are bounce candidates so the eyes will have it.

Calder Race 3:

#2 Get Ready is a More Than Ready colt entered for a cheap tag first out. Not a good sign. But he comes from Ritvo’s barn who is ok with first time starters and the workouts show some talent. Why not? There isn’t much in here.

I guess I would give second to the horse with a couple races, #3 El Profera. She isn’t impressive to me but she has a touch of experience and if the top choice falters, she may pick up the pieces.

Hello. Hope you hit the winner and gimmicks in the baby race yesterday. The parade occurred as expected and it was. Straight triple.

Today we have 2 baby races at Churchill.

First Race 5. I am going to go against the grain here and pick the rail horse, Predate. She showed excellent speed first race and can come back here running for the always dangerous Asmussen. Had a work in between and shouldn’t bounce.

A close second to L’Aziza for LePeraroux. Beat my top choice last out but today might be a different story.

Perhaps the Songandaprayer baby, Unbridled Rhapsody for third. These always flash speed and hopefully they are putting a lot of speed into the track in anticipation of Saturday.

Then in Race 9, The Kentucky Breeders Cup Stake, I am choosing the colt, Ready’s Image here. He ran 10 days ago and has Pletcher handling the reigns. I don’t think he’s run if he was a bounce candidate.

Second to Rated Fiesty who looks to be the fastest filly in the race.

Third to Yogi’ssplashofgold. Wesley Ward’s runner isn’t even close to be his fastest but this one is eligible here.

Good Morning and welcome back to the Juvenile Blog. The baby race at Keenland yesterday was a cinch. Today’s is far more challenging.

Let’s look down the field.

#1 Jumpin For Jason is one of two Asmussen horses entered here. This one is fairly well bred from Jump Start. I don’t like the rail post but Asmussen always has them ready.

#2 Zakouma is a Roman’s colt from Forest Camp. The Dam is a real nice mama and this one can’t be overlooked.

#3 Geroni is a El Corredor colt from Pletcher with Bejarano riding. El Corredor is a nice stud but the babies don’t win early and this one is likely to get more money than it deserves based on the connections.

#5 is Furlong Baby a nice Smart Strike colt but is trained by Jamie S. and these just don’t run first out.

#6 Yonegwa gets Leparoux and is trained by Maker who is better with older horses.

#7 is the other Asmussen trainee from Trust N’ Luck. A Vinery stable runner with Gomez up. This is another solid horse.

The warm up will tell all but right now it’s a toss up between Bold trust due to Asmussen and Zaokuma due to his Dam. Edge to Zakouma, slightly.

Good luck and we’ll all see what happens together.

Today, as promised, we are going to talk a little bit about three NY bred sires that haven’t got started yet this year.

The first is the second leading third year NY bred site, Prime Timber. Here is the deal on Timber. I own a few of them myself so this is a score I know well. As two year olds, the males progress a bit slowly. The females seem to get to the races earlier and like to sprint on the front end. They can handle mud so that is never an issue. They are not always the soundest of horses although there never seems to be major flaws in them. Some act crazy and can hurt themselves early so that slows the process up even further. As winter rolls around the colts fill out and start to catch up while the fillies get a little leg weary and back down. As three year olds the colts become monsters compared to their early selves and many love the turf and can pull off sweeping come from behind moves. Timber was a horse that got better with age so expect the same with the babies. They can win first out but normally those are the fillies.

There have been no 2 year old Timbers out this year so get ready for the eventual parade. And never be shocked when a Timber puts in a terrible performance to suddenly wake up second or third out at a serious price. You can put a child through college on the next 6 months of Timber babies. Pay attention, all.

Freud is another interesting NY Bred second crop sire. He is actually ahead of Prime Timber. Freuds run a little faster a little sooner than Timber and they absolutely love the turf. Never ignore a Freud first time turf or a Freud coming off a bit of a rest. They like time off. Trainers pushing Freuds hard never seem to work out.

Millennium Wind is a second year NY bred sire that didn’t do amazing things last year but really seems to do FAR better towards the end of the season. Given that, expect another slow start but some serious action at the windows as the season progresses.

I want to talk about another sire who I haven’t mentioned in earlier blogs.

City Zip. Zip throws a lot of NY Breds as well. He is an amazing sire for NY breds. Saltzman has a few in Maryland and Linda Rice seems drawn to them as well. Zip’s can run. They run fast and early. Like Timbers and Freuds, though, you need to watch for missed works in a cycle to know to lay off the bets. If they are working and running steadily and not overdoing or missing works, bet signals are all go.

Tomorrow, we are getting off the Juvenile Sires and moving to Freshman sires. Happy wagering!

Now onto today’s Juvenile races; one at Calder and the other at Churchill.

The Calder race is interesting, The entry is tough to pass up. Casino Gambler’s dam has thrown 8 winners from 8 starters and had three stakeswinners in the group. Stanley Gold knows how to get them ready. This one looks like the real deal. And if he doesn’t start, his entry mate might be even better, Brooks ‘N Down. The other entry coming from B.L.’s appeal warrants some attention since this sire throws nice horses as well. Verdade is from last year’s leading sire Johannesburg but they all need a race. The #5 is a Pletcher trainee Lord Tik Tik and is likely to get money. He looks well bred for this level but I have a feeling the inside entry may be tough to run down if they get live on the board.

The Churchill race is for claimers…already? Wow, giving up on babies this soon seems aggressive. Anyway, there is nothing here to inspire but Wesley Ward offers the #$ Stealthespotlight and Ward know how to get them running early. This is the logical choice with Busty Miss from Romans.

Enjoy the races and see you back here tomorrow.

Good Morning. Lets look at the first at Keenland.

It is hard to bet against Asmussen this time of year with the babies unless you really don’t like his horse. The only thing I don’t like is the fact that you haven’t been able to find Posse in the winner’s circle with a search warrant. But Gomez rides and I will give this one a chance, for sure.

Second to Nownownow for Leparoux. He ran a good race last out with a strong middle move and a nice close down the land.

Watch Witness Protection as well. A solid race last out.

Of the first time starters I am going to keep on eye on the Officer Colt, U.S. Cavalry as Officers came out running last year.

Last entry, I promised that we would look at some others on the Juvenile list and highlight why we might want to keep them in mind.

Starting from the top down for the next 10-15 in order.

Exchange Rate: Only gets better with age. One for one and expecting huge season from him even though there are only 35 registered babies.

Songandaprayer: Always has early runners. One for one and expect to see this trend continue. The down side is 35 registered babies.

Touch Gold: One for one. Always stats out well. Expect to see many more winners as the distances increase for the baby races.

Tomorrow, we will discuss a few sires that have a lot of State Bed babies in New York that have yet to get in gear and represent wonderful wagering opportunities in the future.

Good Morning. Let’s start out by talking about yesterday’s race at Keenland. The pick was Ready’s Image an expensive More Than Ready runner. The board confirmed early that he was the choice and the even money play wasn’t the top of the day there. A winner but it wasn’t a great betting race and I personally passed.

Today’s baby race is the fourth at Keenland. Interesting race.

#1 Spin Move is out of Mutakddm. This sire is one for one this year and has 138 registered runners. We are expecting great early things here. This one appears to have some ability and bear watching.

#3 is American Country a talented Dale Romans runner form Gibson County. Last year the sire caught fire early but so far this year is 0-4. Been out once and ran a creditable race.

#4 is Rated Fiesty an Exchange Rate filly from Asmussen. This one doesn’t appear on par with his other babies and we’ll pass.

#5 Brooke’s Valentine is a Fusaischi Pegasus that has Pletcher training and Gomez opting to ride. This one might be the real deal but they normally don’t fire early like this. A race might be needed.

I will be watching the board and the warm-up but right now I might be thinking the #5 and the #1 are the ones to beat. #1 Spin Move might be the horse if she is getting play on the board and if she is warming up smartly.

Yesterday we started to look at the Juvenile Sire Lists located on the Thoroughbred Times web site. We talked about how to win bets and make money by isolating sires that I referred to as Spring Meteors. We also talked about isolating sires who had “failure to launch” and would be expected to improve over time.

Today we are going to go back inside The Juvenile Sire List and start to talk about what it really means for betting individual races.

Before beginning I am going to isolate one of the most important points that you will ever hear when it comes to handicapping races. Clear your minds, get ready to accept this.

Look at the list of juvenile sires on site. Print the pages out. Lay them flat on the table. Now take your cell phone or digital camera and take a picture of them.

Understand yet? The point I am trying to make is that what you see on this list right now is a snap shot of the present, which is actually a reflection of the past. It is not a snap shot of the future. You do not have the world’s first future camera in your hand that will take a picture of tomorrow. Or next week. Or next month. This list tells you what has happened.

YOU NEED TO THINK A LITTLE TO USE IT TO PREDICT ANY RACE IN THE FUTURE!

Just looking at the numbers and deciding that a horse is going to win based on the sire having had a good record for a couple weeks or months with babies is down right crazy. It’s lazy. It’s just a number folks.

But it is a number that can be used to predict the future. How? Because the Juvenile Sire market follows predictable patterns, year in and year out.

Remember, I told you that the better sires, many of the leaders you see on that top 100 list, will score a winning percentage of between 30-50 percent of total runners by year’s end. By far, the most will end up with an average of 30-35, maybe a little higher. There is no sire that is going to go 75% anymore than there is any horse that is going to run a 1:06 time for 6F. It’s possible, sure, but we haven’t seen it yet and it sure isn’t on the immediate horizon. Know that figure gives you a big edge in predicting what is going to happen, IN GENERAL, in the future.

Now, there will be exceptions to the rule. Slight variations. Not major exceptions.

Let’s look at the top 10 and I will give you MY thoughts. See if you follow me. It will be good practice for you.

What jumps off this list is 138 registered runners for Mutakddim. The business is expecting big things from him if this many mares were bred. Watch him…he will be a leader throughout the year.

Cactus Ridge might be an interesting one to chart. New sire. 55 mares bred and registered. Out of a good early sire Hennessey. We’ll see.

Finally, Trust N Luck. He stands in Florida and has 47 registered babies. Might be a good starting sire as well in his first year.

The others are less impressive straight off. Lets wait and see how it shakes out.

Look over the rest of the list tonight and tomorrow we will go over some sires that I will highlight on the rest of the list for one reason or another.

Ok, you should have done your homework from last entry and followed those links I gave you.

Let’s go look at the first one right now. Juvenile sires. This list refers to sires of two year old runners. The list is arranged by the top 100 money earnings, from the top down.

Here is the way you evaluate this list.

Forget about money won for now. I look first at the columns listed STARTERS and WINNERS.

Every year around now, the babies start running and there are a few sires that pop off a string of quick wins. Every year it’s different sires but there are always hot sires through the first month or racing. It’s a law of statistics. Statistics tell you in all aspects of life, early in any analysis, most observations will be average and a few will be uncharacteristically low and others uncharacteristically high. As time goes on, those low individuals will normally ascent toward average and those high will downward regress toward average.

Last year West Acre jumped up early and Johannesburg was a very, very slow starter.
Early every season, I am watching and waiting for the few hot sires to step up. I call them Spring Comets. The more quickly you find them, the more spectacular the display but, be warned, they burn out fast.

I don’t even consider those silly 2 F races. When they started running 4 1/2 F at Calder and Keenland, I began paying attention.

Now, as nice as it is to sport Spring Comets, it is even nicer to find their opposite, sires with babies that fail to launch.

What you look for here are good, solid sires that for whatever reason just have a down first couple months. First, you know to avoid those horses at the window. Second, when they suddenly connect and take off, it is a wagering spectacle. Last year, there were a few beauties. My favorite was a sire named Johannesburg. He was a Freshman sire, meaning his two year old are his first crop of runners. Everyone thought this was going to be a great sire. He was mated to super mares and had 148 registered runners. This is a guy going places in the breeding shed. When the first runner or two came out; they looked impressive on the track. I was watching for a meteor but what I saw was a failure to launch. The first few were just terrible but a number of them were Lucas trained and his first timers never run, so I wasn’t too quick to judge,

As the early season wore on, it was just a massacre. Loss after loss and I was delighted because I knew when the “worm turns,” I was going to be there at the window with both fists. I think he might have been 1 for 17 or worse going into July. But these were big good looking babies. I was patiently waiting. Then POP! That’s all I needed to see. These horses needed a race or three to get going. POP. POP. POP. After that terrible start, his numbers jumped to 12 for 34. And he ended up the top sire of the year.

Now that you are a bit more familiar with the Juvenile Sire list, go back and study it again today. Remember these are the top 100 performing 2 year old sires so most of them will average across the year 30-50 percent winners from starters. If a percentage number is low early and he is bred to a lot of mares, watch for STOCK UP. If a percentage number is too high, watch for STOCK DOWN.

Tomorrow, we will continue to discuss the list and how to use the rest of it to make money playing baby races.

Today there is one Juvenile race at Keenland, the first race. A 4 1/2 furlong race for colts.

The only sire name that pops off this list immediately is Posse. He has looked terrible so far this year and throwing out a Asmussen horse this time of year makes the race a play at a price.

Who do I land on….well, More Than ready is a nice sire and Ready’s Image was an expensive baby. There are some down sides to him and I definitely don’t love the pick. Another one we have to watch is the Elusive Quality baby, Track Record. This sire fires early, the horse looks fit and Howard Neil is ok.

Watch the board and the warm-up for tells.

See you back here for the next baby race.

Slow day for the baby races.

Good Morning. Happy Friday the 13th. My lucky day! Well, yesterday we started the blog off with a race from Keenland. I liked Asmussen’s horse initially. Watching the horses warm up, I quickly changed my mind. He looked a little South of average. Wesley Ward’s filly, on the other hand, looked the total professional. She was heading colts here and was even money but she looked every bit the part and I stayed in my seat. She ran an absolute straight path wire to wire in an outrageous time. What a performance.

Today, we have a filly race, the third at Keenland. The top pair must be respected as they come from Ward’s barn and he is winning everything young he runs on both coasts. This is a solid pair and while only one will go, she will definitely be live here. Pletcher runs out a nice one also, Miss General who I will go with for the win. Her dam threw a nice stake horse that won early last year and she looks to be a 2 for 2 Mom here. The outside won’t hurt. Third to #2 Alpha Tommy. There is a horse I am interested in seeing here. Miss Red Delicious is a runner from Empire Maker. He stands for $100 k and I am interested to see what this baby is going to look like.

Now, let’s get down to some general education.

Yesterday we talked about what summary numbers NOT to blindly follow and where to find them so you can avoid them.

Today, we are going to some of those same sources for good information.

Yesterday, we talked about The Blood Horse magazine and The Thoroughbred Times newspaper. They both come out in print, generally at the end of each week.

I have a subscription to both; you should consider it yourself. If you like racing; you will like these publications. But I am not a shill for them and I don’t make any money when you subscribe so in fairness let me tell you that most of the information I am about to begin talking about you can get for free, on-line.

If you happen to have a hard copy of either magazine, open them to the summary pages that highlight juvenile winners, sires of winners of state bred baby races and, maybe most importantly, race winners from Freshman, Second and Third crop sires. Those statistics give you he key to becoming a winner at the races.

As homework, you need to go to the following webpage:

https://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/breeding/juvenile-sire-list.aspx

This is a list of sire of juvenile runners that is updated daily. On the menu bar directly above the bold print 2007 Juvenile Sire List you will see click buttons for Freshman Sires, Second Crop Sires, etc.

Critical lists…..start with the Juvenile Sire list.

At the top is Bring The Heat who happens to have the 1A runner at Keenland today. Wesley Ward has these babies and they are running outside the tube. There were only 8 registered 2 year olds so that means they are pretty much farm bred. Ward is trying to make a rep for this stud early on so he has the pins down on all these runners. Big factor!

And on the Freshman sire list is Posse who has two ruunners in the Keenland race. Posse sired 48 registered babies this year and Pletcher’s runner today was the most expensive of the group. Pay attention here.

This is a list you need to look at everyday. In future lessons, I will show you why.

Now, study. And we’ll meet back here tomorrow.